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Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981–2007)

Arzheimer, K and Evans, JA 2010, 'Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981–2007)' , International Journal of Forecasting, 26 (1) , pp. 19-31.

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Abstract

It is well known that citizens tend to blame the government for economic hardship, and that they see legislative elections as an opportunity to “throw the rascals out”. However, while this mechanism has been thoroughly explored as a basis for election forecasting in the US and many Western European countries, research carried out on the semi-presidential case of France has only developed more recently. We employ a constrained model predicting votes for principal party groupings, rather than relying upon simple incumbent/opposition vote prediction. Building upon work by Auberger and Jérôme and Jérôme-Speziari, we adopt a time-series approach, using data from 1981 forwards to look for evidence of variation at the departmental level in support for party groups and economic indicators such as unemployment and GDP. We then assess the model’s efficacy in retrodicting first-round legislative election results in France.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Subjects / Themes > J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights
Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences
Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher: Elsevier
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0169-2070
Depositing User: JAJ Evans
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2010 11:06
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 17:27
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/10361

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