Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2008, 'Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007)' , French Politics, 6 , pp. 137-151.

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Abstract

This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, the article looks to develop a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues which are seen as motivating votes for this party: unemployment, crime and immigration. Controlling for political context through election type and opposition popularity, we find that the vote is linked to variation in macro-indicators of these issues and that consequently the Extreme Right vote in France is far from unpredictable, as some analyses have previously suggested.

Item Type:	Article
Themes:	Subjects / Themes > J Political Science > JA Political science (General) Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools:	Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences
Journal or Publication Title:	French Politics
Publisher:	Palgrave Macmillan
Refereed:	Yes
ISSN:	1476-3419
Depositing User:	JAJ Evans
Date Deposited:	13 Oct 2010 11:50
Last Modified:	27 Sep 2011 12:15
URI:	http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/11170

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