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Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007)

Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2008, 'Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007)' , French Politics, 6 , pp. 137-151.

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Abstract

This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, the article looks to develop a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues which are seen as motivating votes for this party: unemployment, crime and immigration. Controlling for political context through election type and opposition popularity, we find that the vote is linked to variation in macro-indicators of these issues and that consequently the Extreme Right vote in France is far from unpredictable, as some analyses have previously suggested.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Subjects / Themes > J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights
Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences
Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences
Journal or Publication Title: French Politics
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1476-3419
Depositing User: JAJ Evans
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2010 11:50
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 17:35
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/11170

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