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Comparing forecast models of radical right voting in four European countries (1973–2008)

Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2009, 'Comparing forecast models of radical right voting in four European countries (1973–2008)' , International Journal of Forecasting, 26 (1) , pp. 82-97.

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    Abstract

    Radical Right Parties (RRPs) have traditionally been seen as ‘hard cases’ to forecast, with unstable voter bases affected by short-term influences. Building upon our previous work on forecasting the French Front National’s vote across time, we construct a comparable model for three other European countries – Austria, Denmark and Norway – with significant RRPs, using economic, cultural and political predictors. We find that the model performs surprisingly well, with the partial exception of Norway, and provides an accurate forecast of RRP electoral performance which improves upon naive endogenous models and, significantly, upon polling estimates. Moreover, the model is firmly rooted in existing explanations of RRP success, allowing a robust explanation not only of variation in these parties’ votes, but also of less successful estimates in a small number of country-specific contexts. Overall, we find that standard approaches to electoral forecasting in fact offer a useful tool in the analysis of RRPs.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Electoral forecast, radical right, evaluating forecasts, regression, time series
    Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights
    Colleges and Schools > College of Health & Social Care > School of Nursing, Midwifery, Social Work & Social Sciences > Centre for Social Research
    Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 0169-2070
    Depositing User: JAJ Evans
    Date Deposited: 29 Sep 2011 10:14
    Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 18:10
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17779

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