Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2013, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly . (In Press)

PDF - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (498kB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.

Actions (login required)