Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout
Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2013, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly . (In Press)
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Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.
|Themes:||Subjects outside of the University Themes|
|Schools:||Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights|
Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Social Research (CSR. Salford)
|Journal or Publication Title:||Political Research Quarterly|
|Depositing User:||JAJ Evans|
|Date Deposited:||07 Oct 2011 11:35|
|Last Modified:||07 Oct 2011 11:35|
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