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Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout

Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2013, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly . (In Press)

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Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights
Schools > College of Health & Social Care > School of Nursing, Midwifery, Social Work & Social Sciences > Centre for Nursing, Midwifery, Social Work & Social Sciences Research
Journal or Publication Title: Political Research Quarterly
Publisher: Sage
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1065-9129
Depositing User: JAJ Evans
Date Deposited: 07 Oct 2011 10:35
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2015 00:33

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