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Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout

Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2013, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly . (In Press)

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    Abstract

    Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.

    Item Type: Article
    Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights
    Colleges and Schools > College of Health & Social Care > School of Nursing, Midwifery, Social Work & Social Sciences > Centre for Social Research
    Journal or Publication Title: Political Research Quarterly
    Publisher: Sage
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 1065-9129
    Depositing User: JAJ Evans
    Date Deposited: 07 Oct 2011 11:35
    Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 18:11
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17843

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