A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results
Mchale, I and Morton, A 2011, 'A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results' , International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (2) , pp. 619-630.
|PDF - Published Version |
Restricted to Repository staff only
Download (371kB) | Request a copy
The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Bradley-Terry model, logit, ranking evaluation, sport, betting|
|Themes:||Subjects outside of the University Themes|
|Schools:||Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business|
|Journal or Publication Title:||International Journal of Forecasting|
|Depositing User:||Dr Ian G. McHale|
|Date Deposited:||05 Oct 2011 11:18|
|Last Modified:||28 Mar 2013 14:17|
Document DownloadsMore statistics for this item...
Actions (login required)
|Edit record (repository staff only)|