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A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

Mchale, I and Morton, A 2011, 'A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results' , International Journal of Forecasting, 27 (2) , pp. 619-630.

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    Abstract

    The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Bradley-Terry model, logit, ranking evaluation, sport, betting
    Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business
    Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 01692070
    Depositing User: Dr Ian G. McHale
    Date Deposited: 05 Oct 2011 11:18
    Last Modified: 18 Sep 2013 14:59
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17851

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