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On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket

Scarf, PA, Shi, X and Akhtar, S 2010, 'On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket' , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174 (2) , pp. 471-497.

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    Abstract

    Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at some point during the third innings; we refer to such a point in the match as the current position. Match outcome probabilities are calculated by using a model for the outcome given the end of the third-innings position, and a model for transitions from the current position to the end of the third-innings position, with transition probabilities considered as a function of run rate. Although the run rate is not wholly in the control of the batting side, our approach at least allows a captain or team analyst to consider the match outcome probability if the team can bat towards a target at a particular run rate. This will then at least indicate whether an aggressive or defensive batting strategy is desirable.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Cricket, logistic regression, negative binomial distribution, strategy
    Themes: Health and Wellbeing
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
    Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 09641998
    Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
    Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2011 10:43
    Last Modified: 10 Jun 2014 08:32
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17920

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