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The importance of a match in a tournament

Scarf, PA and SHI, X 2008, 'The importance of a match in a tournament' , Computers & Operations Research, 35 (7) , pp. 2406-2418.

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    A quantitative measure of “match importance” is useful in a number of decision problems, for example: as a metric in tournament design; for selecting matches for broadcasting; for scheduling matches in a tournament; and for assigning referees. To date measures of match importance used in such analyses have been relatively naïve. We discuss a general measure that considers the effect of a particular match on the end of tournament position, given the results of all other matches, some played, some predicted. We use logistic regression to predict matches and Monte Carlo simulation to compute the match importance measure, and apply these to soccer matches in the English Football Association Premier League.

    Item Type: Article
    Additional Information: Sport, contest, outcome uncertainty, championship significance
    Themes: Health and Wellbeing
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business
    Journal or Publication Title: Computers & Operations Research
    Publisher: Elsevier
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 03050548
    Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
    Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2011 11:20
    Last Modified: 10 Jun 2014 08:31

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