Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket
Scarf, PA and Shi, X 2005, 'Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket' , IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16 (2) , pp. 161-178.
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This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration of the third innings in test cricket. Data on the outcomes of recent test matches are analysed in order to develop simple decision support tools. The first of these tools presents match outcome probabilities given the position of the match at a potential declaration point. These probabilities are determined using a multinomial logistic regression model that is fitted to the test match data. This idea is then extended to consider progress towards a declaration— match outcome probabilities are considered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. The decision tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and example calculations are presented. The modelling described has the potential for practical use in test matches.
|Themes:||Health and Wellbeing|
|Schools:||Schools > Salford Business School > Business and Management Research Centre|
|Journal or Publication Title:||IMA Journal of Management Mathematics|
|Publisher:||Oxford University Press|
|Depositing User:||Dr Philip Scarf|
|Date Deposited:||06 Oct 2011 15:50|
|Last Modified:||29 Oct 2015 00:49|
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