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Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket

Scarf, PA and Shi, X 2005, 'Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket' , IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16 (2) , pp. 161-178.

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Abstract

This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration of the third innings in test cricket. Data on the outcomes of recent test matches are analysed in order to develop simple decision support tools. The first of these tools presents match outcome probabilities given the position of the match at a potential declaration point. These probabilities are determined using a multinomial logistic regression model that is fitted to the test match data. This idea is then extended to consider progress towards a declaration— match outcome probabilities are considered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. The decision tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and example calculations are presented. The modelling described has the potential for practical use in test matches.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Health and Wellbeing
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business
Journal or Publication Title: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1471-678X
Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2011 15:50
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 17:12
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/18000

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