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Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices

Chen, H and Boylan, J 2008, 'Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices' , International Journal of Forecasting, 24 , pp. 525-534.

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Abstract

This paper provides empirical evidence on forecasting seasonal demand using both individual and group seasonal indices methods. The findings show that the group seasonal indices methods outperform the individual seasonal indices method. This paper also offers empirical results from comparing two shrinkage methods with the group seasonal indices methods. The theoretical rules developed by the authors for choosing between group seasonal indices and individual seasonal indices produce more accurate forecasts than do published rules for choosing between shrinkage methods, when measured by the MSE, and are competitive when measured by the symmetric MAPE.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Management Science and Statistics
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher: Elsevier
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0169-2070
Depositing User: H Chen
Date Deposited: 07 Oct 2011 11:08
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 17:12
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/18023

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