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Conflict analysis using Bayesian neural networks and generalized linear models

Iswaran, N and Percy, DF 2010, 'Conflict analysis using Bayesian neural networks and generalized linear models' , Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61 (2) , pp. 332-341.

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    Abstract

    The study of conflict analysis has recently become more important due to current world events. Despite numerous quantitative analyses on the study of international conflict, the statistical results are often inconsistent with each other. The causes of conflict, however, are often stable and replicable when the prior probability of conflict is large. As there has been much conjecture about neural networks being able to cope with the complexity of such interconnected and interdependent data, we formulate a statistical version of a neural network model and compare the results to those of conventional statistical models. We then show how to apply Bayesian methods to the preferred model, with the aim of finding the posterior probabilities of conflict outbreak and hence being able to plan for conflict prevention.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian inference, conflict analysis, generalized linear models, neural networks
    Themes: Health and Wellbeing
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Management Science and Statistics
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Operational Research Society
    Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 0160-5682
    Depositing User: Professor David F. Percy
    Date Deposited: 10 Oct 2011 14:13
    Last Modified: 28 Jul 2014 14:36
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/18116

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