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On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping

Percy, DF and Scarf, PA 2008, 'On the development of decision rules for bar quiz handicapping' , Journal of the Operational Research Society, 59 (10) , pp. 1406-1414.

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Abstract

Purpose - To present decision rules for 'pub quiz' handicapping where teams comprise different numbers of players. Design/methodology/approach - Discusses handicapping in several sports. Argues that 'pub quiz' teams with fewer players are disadvantaged compared to those with more. Models the quiz game on Bernoulli principles and develops handicapping rules that address unequal numbers of players. Bases theses on the expected number of wrong answers. Formulates a handicapping expression that requires estimating an unknown parameter. Illustrates the system by considering various estimation scenarios. Considers extension to multiple choice questions and progressive quizzes. Findings - Discusses a priori quiz handicapping through estimating, using distributions and a Bayesian approach. Compares against post-quiz actual estimation using post-quiz answer data (frequentist approach), and handicapping by a Bayesian approach that includes use of quiz data. Concludes the latter is more mathematically appropriate as all the available information is adopted. Provides formulations for all the handicapping scenarios considered and uses actual quiz data for numerical illustration. Shows simple multiplicative adjustment accommodates multiple choice questions and answers, and for progressive quizzes, that the handicapping boils down to eliminating the largest team giving an incorrect answer. Research limitations/implications - Seeks extension to other sports/games and production of simple nomograms for the handicapping system. Originality/value - Develops handicapping that may be set before a quiz using judgement regarding question difficulty, and a more accurate posterior rule that is calculated after the quiz. Provides modifications for multiple-choice questions and progressive quizzes.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Health and Wellbeing
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Management Science and Statistics
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0160-5682
Depositing User: Professor David F. Percy
Date Deposited: 10 Oct 2011 15:56
Last Modified: 28 Jul 2014 14:38
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/18122

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