Akhtar, S and Scarf, PA 2012, 'Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play' , International Journal of Forecasting, 28 (3) , pp. 632-643.

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Abstract

This paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome probabilities (of a win, draw, or loss) and covariate effects vary session by session. The covariates fall into two categories, pre-match effects (strengths of teams, a ground effect, home field advantage, outcome of the toss) and in-play effects (score or lead, overs-used, overs-remaining, run-rate, and wicket resources used). The results indicate that the lead has a small effect on the match outcome early on but is dominant later; pre-match team strengths, ground effect and home field advantage are important predictors of a win early on; and wicket resources used remains important throughout a match.

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