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Landscape composition and spatial prediction of alveolar echinococcosis in Southern Ningxia, China

Pleydell, DRJ, Yang, YR, Danson, FM, Raoul, F, Craig, PS, McManus, DP, Vuitton, DA, Wang, Q and Giraudoux, P 2008, 'Landscape composition and spatial prediction of alveolar echinococcosis in Southern Ningxia, China' , PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2 (9) .

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    Abstract

    Background: Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) presents a serious public health challenge within China. Mass screening ultrasound surveys can detect pre-symptomatic AE, but targeting areas identified from hospital records is inefficient regarding AE. Prediction of undetected or emerging hotspots would increase detection rates. Voles and lemmings of the subfamily Arvicolinae are important intermediate hosts in sylvatic transmission systems. Their populations reach high densities in productive grasslands where food and cover are abundant. Habitat availability is thought to affect arvicoline population dynamic patterns and definitive host-intermediate host interactions. Arvicoline habitat correlates with AE prevalence in Western Europe and southern Gansu Province, China. Methods and Findings: Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, borders southern Gansu. The aims of this study were to map AE prevalence across Xiji and test arvicoline habitat as a predictor. Land cover was mapped using remotely sensed (Landsat) imagery. Infection status of 3,205 individuals screened in 2002-2003 was related, using generalised additive mixed models, to covariates: gender; farming; ethnicity; dog ownership; water source; and areal cover of mountain pasture and lowland pasture. A Markov random field modelled additional spatial variation and uncertainty. Mountain pasture and lowland pasture were associated with below and above average AE prevalence, respectively. Conclusions: Low values of the normalised difference vegetation index indicated sub-optimality of lowland pasture for grassland arvicolines. Unlike other known endemic areas, grassland arvicolines probably did not provide the principal reservoir for Echinococcus multilocularis in Xiji. This result is consistent with recent small mammal surveys reporting low arvicoline densities and high densities of hamsters, pikas and jerboas, all suitable intermediate hosts for E. multilocularis, in reforested lowland pasture. The risk of re-emergence is discussed. We recommend extending monitoring to: southern Haiyuan County, where predicted prevalence was high; southern Xiji County, where prediction uncertainty was high; and monitoring small mammal community dynamics and the infection status of dogs.

    Item Type: Article
    Themes: Subjects / Themes > G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
    Subjects / Themes > Q Science > Q Science (General)
    Subjects / Themes > R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
    Health and Wellbeing
    Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Science & Technology
    Colleges and Schools > College of Science & Technology > School of Environment and Life Sciences
    Colleges and Schools > College of Science & Technology > School of Environment and Life Sciences > Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre
    Journal or Publication Title: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
    Publisher: Public Library of Science
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 1935-2735
    Related URLs:
    Depositing User: FM Danson
    Date Deposited: 20 Nov 2009 12:20
    Last Modified: 03 Jul 2014 12:14
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/2526

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