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Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests.

Baker, RD and Scarf, PA 2006, 'Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests.' , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C Applied Statistics, 55 (2) , pp. 225-239.

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    Data from 20 sporting contests in which the same two teams compete regularly are studied. Strong and weak symmetry requirements for possible models are identified, and some simple models are proposed and fitted to the data. The need to compute the exact likelihood function and the presence of missing values make this non-trivial. Forecasting match outcomes by using the models can give a modest improvement over a naïve forecast. Significance tests for studying the effect of `match covariates' such as playing at home or away or winning the toss are introduced, and the effect of these covariates is in general found to be quite large.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Akaike information criterion; Cricket; Exact tests; Football; Generalized linear models; Rugby; Sporting contests
    Themes: Subjects / Themes > Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA275 Mathematical Statistics
    Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Centre for Sports Business
    Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C Applied Statistics
    Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 1467-9876
    Depositing User: H Kenna
    Date Deposited: 21 Aug 2007 13:31
    Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 16:46

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