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Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games

Baker, RD and McHale, IG 2013, 'Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games' , International Journal of Forecasting, 29 (1) , pp. 122-130. (In Press)

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Abstract

The paper presents a point process model for predicting exact end-of-match scores in the premier league of American football, the National Football League. The hazards of scoring are allowed to vary with team statistics from previous games and/or the bookmaker point spread and over-under. The model is used to generate out-of-sample forecasts, which are evaluated using several criteria, including a Kelly betting strategy. In predicting the results of games, the model is marginally outperformed by the betting market. However, when it is used to forecast exact scores, the model proves to do at least as well as the market.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: 07/11/2012 RoMEO green journal
Uncontrolled Keywords: Sports,Predictions, Point processes
Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Arts & Social Sciences
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Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher: Elsevier
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0169-2070
Funders: Non funded research
Depositing User: Dr Ian G. McHale
Date Deposited: 07 Nov 2012 15:41
Last Modified: 27 May 2014 12:43
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/27280

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