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A Model to Predict the Residual Life of Aircraft Engines Based upon Oil Analysis Data.

Wang, W and Zhang, W 2005, 'A Model to Predict the Residual Life of Aircraft Engines Based upon Oil Analysis Data.' , Naval Research Logistics, 52 (3) , pp. 276-284.

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Abstract

This paper reports on a study using the available oil monitoring information, such as the data obtained using the Spectrometric Oil Analysis Programme (SOAP), to predict the residual life of a set of aircraft engines. The relationship between oil monitoring information and the residual life is established using the concept of the proportional residual, which states that the predicted residual life may be proportional to the wear increment measured by the oil analysis programmes. Assuming such a relationship between wear and the residual life exists, we formulated a recursive prediction model for the item's residual life given measured oil monitoring information to date. A set of censored life data of 30 aircraft engines (right censored due to preventive overhaul) along with the history of their monitored metal concentration information are available to us. The metal concentration information includes many variables, such as Fe, Cu, Al, etc.; not all of them are useful, and some of them may be correlated. The principal component analysis (PCA) has been adopted to reduce the dimension of the original data set and to produce a new set of uncorrelated variables, which we shall use in the prediction model. The procedure associated with estimating model parameters is discussed. The model is fitted to the actual SOAP data from the aircraft engines, and the goodness-of-fit test has been carried out.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: residual life • prediction • oil analysis • condition monitoring • principal component analysis • goodness-of-fit test
Themes: Subjects / Themes > Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA275 Mathematical Statistics
Subjects / Themes > H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Operations and Global Logistics Management
Journal or Publication Title: Naval Research Logistics
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 0894-069X
Depositing User: H Kenna
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2007 11:11
Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 16:46
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/285

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