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Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Dangerfield, BC, Fang, Y and Roberts, CA 2001, 'Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy' , System Dynamics Review, 17 (2) , pp. 119-150.

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    Abstract

    A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981--1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model-generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed.

    Item Type: Article
    Themes: Subjects / Themes > Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA275 Mathematical Statistics
    Subjects / Themes > H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
    Subjects outside of the University Themes
    Schools: Colleges and Schools > College of Business & Law > Salford Business School > Operations and Global Logistics Management
    Journal or Publication Title: System Dynamics Review
    Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
    Refereed: Yes
    ISSN: 1099-1727
    Depositing User: H Kenna
    Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2007 11:21
    Last Modified: 20 Aug 2013 16:46
    URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/288

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