To lead or not to lead: Analysis of the sprint in track cycling
Moffatt, JL, Scarf, PA, Passfield, L, McHale, IG and Zhang, K 2014, 'To lead or not to lead: Analysis of the sprint in track cycling' , Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10 (2) , pp. 161-172.
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This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimise overtaking.
|Schools:||Schools > Salford Business School
Schools > Salford Business School > Business and Management Research Centre
|Journal or Publication Title:||Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports|
|Publisher:||Walter De Gruyter|
|Funders:||Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)|
|Depositing User:||Dr Philip Scarf|
|Date Deposited:||15 Oct 2013 11:15|
|Last Modified:||17 Mar 2016 10:11|
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