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A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers

McHale, IG and Szczepanski, L 2014, 'A mixed effects model for identifying goal scoring ability of footballers' , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), 177 (2) , pp. 397-417.

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Abstract

The paper presents a model that can be used to identify the goal scoring ability of footballers. By decomposing the scoring process into the generation of shots and the conversion of shots to goals, abilities can be estimated from two mixed effects models.We compare several versions of our model as a tool for predicting the number of goals that a player will score in the following season with that of a naive method whereby a player’s goals-per-minute ratio is assumed to be constant from one season to the next. We find that our model outperforms the naive model and that this outperformance can be attributed, in some part, to the model’s disaggregating a player’s ability and chance that may have influenced his goal scoring statistic in the previous season.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School
Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)
Publisher: Royal Statistical Society
Refereed: No
ISSN: 0964-1998
Related URLs:
Funders: Non funded research
Depositing User: Professor Ian G. McHale
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2014 13:29
Last Modified: 17 Mar 2016 10:11
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/30852

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