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Two new stochastic models of the failure process of a series system

Wu, S and Scarf, P 2016, 'Two new stochastic models of the failure process of a series system' , European Journal of Operational Research .

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Consider a series system consisting of sockets into each of which a component is inserted: if a component fails, it is replaced with a new identical one immediately and system operation resumes. An interesting question is: how to model the failure process of the system as a whole when the lifetime distribution of each component is unknown? This paper attempts to answer this question by developing two new models, for the cases of a specified and an unspecified number of sockets, respectively. It introduces t he concept of a virtual component, and in this sense, we suppose that the effect of repair corresponds to replacement of the most reliable component in the system. It then discusses the probabilistic properties of the models and methods for parameter estim ation. Based on six datasets of artificially generated system failures and a real - world dataset, the paper compares the performance of the proposed models with four other commonly used models: the renewal process, the geometric process, Kijima's generalise d renewal process, and the power law process. The results show that the proposed models outperform these comparators on the datasets, based on the Akaike information criterion.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Schools > Salford Business School
Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0377-2217
Funders: EU FP7
Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
Date Deposited: 26 Jul 2016 14:27
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2016 11:12

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