A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores

Boshnakov, G, Kharrat, T and McHale, IG 2017, 'A bivariate Weibull count model for forecasting association football scores' , International Journal of Forecasting, 33 (2) , pp. 458-466.

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Abstract

The paper presents a model for forecasting association football scores. The model uses a Weibull inter-arrival-times-based count process and a copula to produce a bivariate distribution of the numbers of goals scored by the home and away teams in a match. We test it against a variety of alternatives, including the simpler Poisson distribution-based model and an independent version of our model. The out-of-sample performance of our methodology is illustrated using, first, calibration curves, then a Kelly-type betting strategy that is applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market and to the over–under 2.5 goals market. The new model provides an improved fit to the data relative to previous models, and results in positive returns to betting.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0169-2070
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Professor Ian G. McHale
Date Deposited: 11 Jan 2017 08:12
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2017 00:21
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/41154

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