Surveillance to inform control of emerging plant diseases : an epidemiological perspective

Parnell, SR, van den Bosch, F, Gottwald, TR and Gilligan, CA 2017, 'Surveillance to inform control of emerging plant diseases : an epidemiological perspective' , Annual Review of Phytopathology, 55 .

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Abstract

The rise in emerging pathogens and strains has led to increased calls for more effective surveillance in plant health. We show how epidemiological insights about the dynamics of disease spread can improve the targeting of when and where to sample. We outline some relatively simple but powerful statistical approaches to inform surveillance and describe how they can be adapted to include epidemiological information. This enables us to address questions such as: Following the first report of an invading pathogen, what is the likely incidence of disease? If no cases of disease have been found, how certain can we be that the disease was not simply missed by chance? We illustrate the use of spatially explicit stochastic models to optimize targeting of surveillance and control resources. Finally, we discuss how modern detection and diagnostic technologies as well as information from passive surveillance networks (e.g., citizen science) can be integrated into surveillance strategies.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > School of Environment and Life Sciences > Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: Annual Review of Phytopathology
Publisher: Annual Reviews
ISSN: 0066-4286
Related URLs:
Depositing User: SR Parnell
Date Deposited: 25 Jul 2017 08:19
Last Modified: 08 Aug 2017 13:58
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/43149

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