Time-varying ratings for international football teams

Baker, RD and McHale, IG 2017, 'Time-varying ratings for international football teams' , European Journal of Operational Research .

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Abstract

We present a model for rating international football teams. Using data from 1944 to 2016, we ask `which was the greatest team?'. To answer the question requires some sophisticated methodology. Specifically, we have used k-fold cross-validation, which allows us to optimally down-weight the results of friendly matches in explaining World Cup results. In addition to the central aim of the paper, we also discuss, from a philosophical perspective, situations in which model over-fitting is perhaps desirable. Results suggest that Hungary in 1952, is a strong candidate for the all-time greatest international football team.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School
Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0377-2217
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Prof Rose Dawn Baker
Date Deposited: 13 Dec 2017 15:02
Last Modified: 13 Dec 2017 17:20
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/44645

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