James, P 2008, Urban green spaces in the mid 21st century scenarios and trajectories for the future cityscapes – case study of a North European city , in: Urban Green Spaces - A Key for sustainable cities, 17th - 18th April, 2008, Sofia, Bulgaria.

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Abstract

Urbanization is the dominant land use change across the world. Population growth, climate change and technological change are identifi ed as three factors that have paramount importance in the historic, contemporary and future development of urban centres. A critical review of current thinking relating to these three drivers allows for scenarios and trajectories to be identifi ed and outlined. The author concentrates, in this paper, on one possible trajectory: one that sees the a larger, ageing urban population living in smaller households, where climate change follows the predictions of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) and in which no cheap energy replacement is found to our current dependence on carbon. Implications of these changes are discussed and used to illustrate how structure, both botanical and spatial, of urban green space may change. Such evidence based scenarios of the future encourages decision-makers, planners, ecologists and other professions to engage in participatory discussions with urban dwellers regarding their futures.

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