Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout

Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2011, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly, 65 (4) , pp. 855-867.

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Abstract

Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.

Item Type:	Article
Themes:	Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools:	Schools > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Schools > School of Health and Society > Centre for Applied Research in Health, Welfare and Policy
Journal or Publication Title:	Political Research Quarterly
Publisher:	Sage
Refereed:	Yes
ISSN:	1065-9129
Related URLs:	Publication
Depositing User:	JAJ Evans
Date Deposited:	07 Oct 2011 10:35
Last Modified:	24 Nov 2018 00:45
URI:	http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17843

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