Evans, JA and Ivaldi, G 2011, 'Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout' , Political Research Quarterly, 65 (4) , pp. 855-867.
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Abstract
Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.
Item Type: | Article |
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Themes: | Subjects outside of the University Themes |
Schools: | Schools > School of Humanities, Languages & Social Sciences > Centre for Democracy and Human Rights Schools > School of Health and Society > Centre for Applied Research in Health, Welfare and Policy |
Journal or Publication Title: | Political Research Quarterly |
Publisher: | Sage |
Refereed: | Yes |
ISSN: | 1065-9129 |
Related URLs: | |
Depositing User: | JAJ Evans |
Date Deposited: | 07 Oct 2011 10:35 |
Last Modified: | 24 Nov 2018 00:45 |
URI: | http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17843 |
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