On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket

Scarf, PA, Shi, X and Akhtar, S 2010, 'On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket' , Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174 (2) , pp. 471-497.

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Abstract

Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at some point during the third innings; we refer to such a point in the match as the current position. Match outcome probabilities are calculated by using a model for the outcome given the end of the third-innings position, and a model for transitions from the current position to the end of the third-innings position, with transition probabilities considered as a function of run rate. Although the run rate is not wholly in the control of the batting side, our approach at least allows a captain or team analyst to consider the match outcome probability if the team can bat towards a target at a particular run rate. This will then at least indicate whether an aggressive or defensive batting strategy is desirable.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Cricket, logistic regression, negative binomial distribution, strategy
Themes:	Health and Wellbeing
Schools:	Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title:	Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
Publisher:	Wiley-Blackwell
Refereed:	Yes
ISSN:	09641998
Depositing User:	Dr Philip Scarf
Date Deposited:	06 Oct 2011 09:43
Last Modified:	08 Aug 2017 12:07
URI:	http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17920

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