Scarf, PA ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5623-906X, Shi, X and Akhtar, S
2010,
'On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket'
, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174 (2)
, pp. 471-497.
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Abstract
Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at some point during the third innings; we refer to such a point in the match as the current position. Match outcome probabilities are calculated by using a model for the outcome given the end of the third-innings position, and a model for transitions from the current position to the end of the third-innings position, with transition probabilities considered as a function of run rate. Although the run rate is not wholly in the control of the batting side, our approach at least allows a captain or team analyst to consider the match outcome probability if the team can bat towards a target at a particular run rate. This will then at least indicate whether an aggressive or defensive batting strategy is desirable.
Item Type: | Article |
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Themes: | Health and Wellbeing |
Schools: | Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre |
Journal or Publication Title: | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Refereed: | Yes |
ISSN: | 09641998 |
Depositing User: | Dr Philip Scarf |
Date Deposited: | 06 Oct 2011 09:43 |
Last Modified: | 16 Feb 2022 12:36 |
URI: | http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/17920 |
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