Uncertainty analysis in a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis tool for river catchment management

Chen, H, Wood, MD ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0635-2387, Linstead, C and Maltby, E 2011, 'Uncertainty analysis in a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis tool for river catchment management' , Environmental Modelling & Software, 26 (4) , pp. 395-405.

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The importance of uncertainty analysis has been increasingly recognised, due to the influence of uncertainties in data, models and expert judgements. However, the successful integration of uncertainty analysis into multi-criteria analysis (MCA) has rarely been achieved. This paper analyses uncertainty sources in MCA. General methods of uncertainty analysis in MCA are reviewed, including probabilistic methods, indicator-based methods and fuzzy logic. Building on this review, an uncertainty analysis module developed for use within a GIS-based MCA tool for catchment management is presented. In this module, the influence of uncertainties on decision-making can be visually explored using an indicator-based method. The indicator-based method provides a pragmatic approach to communicating areas of uncertainty to decision-makers without assuming any prior knowledge of uncertainty analysis techniques. This enables uncertainty analysis to be more effectively operationalised within the decision-making process. An application example in the Tamar catchment, southwest UK, is used to illustrate the capability of the uncertainty analysis module when applied in a decision-making context.

Item Type: Article
Themes: Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools: Schools > School of Environment and Life Sciences
Journal or Publication Title: Environmental Modelling & Software
Publisher: Elsevier
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1364-8152
Depositing User: Prof Mike Wood
Date Deposited: 30 Nov 2011 10:31
Last Modified: 16 Feb 2022 13:36
URI: https://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/19040

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