Akhtar, S and Scarf, PA ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5623-906X
2012,
'Forecasting test cricket match outcomes in play'
, International Journal of Forecasting, 28 (3)
, pp. 632-643.
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Abstract
This paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome probabilities (of a win, draw, or loss) and covariate effects vary session by session. The covariates fall into two categories, pre-match effects (strengths of teams, a ground effect, home field advantage, outcome of the toss) and in-play effects (score or lead, overs-used, overs-remaining, run-rate, and wicket resources used). The results indicate that the lead has a small effect on the match outcome early on but is dominant later; pre-match team strengths, ground effect and home field advantage are important predictors of a win early on; and wicket resources used remains important throughout a match.
Item Type: | Article |
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Themes: | Health and Wellbeing |
Schools: | Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre |
Journal or Publication Title: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Refereed: | Yes |
ISSN: | 01692070 |
Depositing User: | Dr Philip Scarf |
Date Deposited: | 18 Jun 2012 14:52 |
Last Modified: | 16 Feb 2022 14:21 |
URI: | http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/22859 |
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