The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates.

Syntetos, A and Boylan, JE 2005, 'The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates.' , International Journal of Forecasting, 21 (2) , pp. 303-314.

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Abstract

Intermittent demand appears sporadically, with some time periods showing no demand at all. In this paper, four forecasting methods, Simple Moving Average (SMA, 13 periods), Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Croston's method, and a new method (based on Croston's approach) recently developed by the authors, are compared on 3000 real intermittent demand data series from the automotive industry. The mean signed and relative geometric root-mean-square errors are shown to meet the theoretical and practical requirements of intermittent demand, as do the Percentage Better and Percentage Best summary statistics based on these measures. These measures are subsequently applied in a simulation experiment. The out-of-sample comparison results indicate superior performance of the new method. In addition, the results show that the mean signed error is not strongly scale dependent and the relative geometric root-mean-square error is a well-behaved accuracy measure for intermittent demand.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Demand forecasting; Intermittent demand; Accuracy measures; Croston's method; Exponential smoothing; Forecasting competition
Themes:	Subjects / Themes > Q Science > QA Mathematics Subjects outside of the University Themes
Schools:	Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title:	International Journal of Forecasting
Publisher:	Elsevier
Refereed:	Yes
ISSN:	0169-2070
Depositing User:	H Kenna
Date Deposited:	22 Aug 2007 09:59
Last Modified:	29 Oct 2015 00:49
URI:	http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/283

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