To lead or not to lead : analysis of the sprint in track cycling

Moffatt, JL, Scarf, PA ORCID:, Passfield, L, McHale, IG and Zhang, K 2014, 'To lead or not to lead : analysis of the sprint in track cycling' , Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10 (2) , pp. 161-172.

PDF - Submitted Version
Download (558kB) | Preview


This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimise overtaking.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Publisher: Walter De Gruyter
Refereed: Yes
ISSN: 1559-0410
Related URLs:
Funders: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
Date Deposited: 15 Oct 2013 11:15
Last Modified: 16 Feb 2022 15:07

Actions (login required)

Edit record (repository staff only) Edit record (repository staff only)


Downloads per month over past year