Accuracy of estimates in the development phases of highway projects : what critical cost overrun phase?

Amadi, AI and Eaton, D 2015, Accuracy of estimates in the development phases of highway projects : what critical cost overrun phase? , in: UNSPECIFIED.

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Accuracy in cost estimating under conditions of uncertainty, as is typical of most construction projects, is an issue of immense concern for clients, project managers, contractors, and all other stakeholders in construction works. It is an issue of continuing interest and has attracted a lot of scholarly attention from researchers and innovators. Accurate cost estimates are needed for planning and budgetary phases of road projects by highway agencies. Highway projects have historically experienced significant cost overruns often rooted at the point of the decision to build. However the basis for assessing the level of cost overruns continues to elicit diverse opinions and has become a debatable issue in the literature, with some authors alluding to the estimate developed at the detailed design stage as opposed to the preliminary conceptual estimate as the true benchmark to be used in quantifying the level of cost overrun. A survey of literature sources principally from scholarly articles and research programs undertaken by various highway agencies is carried out, with a view to identifying and defining the critical phase of development which should constitute the basis upon which investment estimates are to be predicated. This paper thus evaluates and synthesizes the theoretical basis of accuracy in estimating, outlines the nomenclature of the developmental phases of highway projects as evident in the literature and builds upon the argument raised by earlier authors: Wachs (1989); Simon (1991) and Flyvbjerg et al (2002). Keywords: Accuracy of Estimates, Conceptual Estimates, Cost Overruns

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Schools: Schools > School of the Built Environment > Centre for Urban Processes, Resilient Infrastructures & Sustainable Environments
Journal or Publication Title: International Postgraduate Research Conference 2015
Publisher: CIB
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Depositing User: AI Amadi
Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2017 12:51
Last Modified: 15 Feb 2022 21:40

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