Statistical modelling of training and performance using power output and heart rate data collected in the field

Al-Otaibi, NM 2017, Statistical modelling of training and performance using power output and heart rate data collected in the field , PhD thesis, University of Salford.

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This thesis develops statistical models of performance and training that make use of power output and heart rate data. These data were collected during training and competition, and were recorded every five seconds using a power meter and heart rate monitor. Using these data, we estimate the parameters of the Banister model of training and performance. In principle, knowledge of these parameters allows one to provide quantitative decision support for the scheduling of training in advance of a major competition.

The methodology proceeds in a number of steps. In the first, measures of both training and performance must be specified. The training experienced by an athlete in a single session, the training load, can be measured in a number of ways. We use the TRIMP measure. This measure in its simplest form is essentially the total number of heart beats in a training session. Then the training loads of successive sessions are accumulated into a single measure of training up to time t. This we term the accumulated training effect (at time t). Performance during a session at time t is defined as a function of the power output observed during the session. We consider various performance measures and describe these in detail in the thesis. Then in the second step, we relate the performance at time t to the training load up to time t using a regression model, estimating the parameters of the performance training relationship. The final step is the training optimisation step, whereby the known training-performance model parameters can be used to specify training loads up to time T that will maximise (in expectation) the performance at time T.

We demonstrate the methodology using the training data histories of ten competitive male cyclists. As each athlete has his own specific characteristics, we should focus on optimising training and performance individually. We compare and contrast the different performance measures that we propose.

Our principal findings are that: Banister model parameters can be estimated; that the different performance measures yield different Banister model parameter estimates and therefore that the performance measure specification is a matter for athlete/coach choice; and that finally the Banister model has a serious shortcoming for the optimisation of training. The articulation of this shortcoming is an important contribution of this thesis

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Contributors: Scarf, PA (Supervisor)
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School
Funders: k
Depositing User: Naif Mohammed Al-Otaibi
Date Deposited: 19 Sep 2018 14:08
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 23:37

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