Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

Yates, KL ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8429-2941, Bouchet, PJ, Caley, MJ and Mengersen, K, et al. 2018, 'Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models' , Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 33 (10) , pp. 790-802.

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Abstract

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their ‘transferability’) undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > School of Environment and Life Sciences > Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: Trends in Ecology & Evolution
Publisher: Cell Press (Elsevier)
ISSN: 0169-5347
Related URLs:
Depositing User: USIR Admin
Date Deposited: 06 Aug 2018 14:35
Last Modified: 07 Jun 2019 11:45
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/47980

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