On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport : the case of international rugby union

Scarf, PA ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5623-906X, Parma, R and McHale, IG 2018, 'On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport : the case of international rugby union' , European Journal of Operational Research, 273 (2) , pp. 721-730.

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Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in the framework of a “Poisson match”. We argue that increasing scoring rates in the hope of increasing entertainment may have a detrimental impact on the popularity of sport. The basis of our argument is that higher scoring-rates decrease outcome uncertainty. We use international rugby to demonstrate our findings and show that scoring rates have indeed increased significantly over the previous half-century in this sport. Therefore, administrators should recognise our general point and we suggest that rugby union administrators in particular ought to consider the introduction of new laws to reduce scoring-rates. Scenarios in which the scoring-rate is radically reduced are illustrated through a simulation of the Rugby World Cup tournament.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > Salford Business School > Salford Business School Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title: European Journal of Operational Research
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0377-2217
Related URLs:
Depositing User: Dr Philip Scarf
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2018 10:10
Last Modified: 14 Nov 2018 12:02
URI: http://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/48047

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