What makes or breaks a campaign to stop an invading plant pathogen?

Milne, AE ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4509-0578, Gottwald, T ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0885-8004, Parnell, SR ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2625-4557, Alonso Chavez, V ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3506-7603 and van den Bosch, F 2020, 'What makes or breaks a campaign to stop an invading plant pathogen?' , PLOS Computational Biology, 16 (2) , e1007570.

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Abstract

Diseases in humans, animals and plants remain an important challenge in our society. Effective control of invasive pathogens often requires coordinated concerted action of a large group of stakeholders. Both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of a disease control campaign. In mathematical models that are frequently used to guide such campaigns, human behaviour is often ill-represented, if at all. Existing models of human, animal and plant disease that do incorporate participation or compliance are often driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion is an important driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), which is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model of this invasive disease with an opinion dynamics model we are able to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? Frequent contact between stakeholders and advisors is shown to increase the probability of successful control. More surprisingly, we show that informing stakeholders about the effectiveness of control methods is of much greater importance than prematurely increasing their perceptions of the risk of infection. We discuss the overarching consequences of this finding and the effect on human as well as plant disease epidemics.

Item Type:	Article
Contributors:	Lloyd-Smith, James (Editor)
Additional Information:	** From PLOS via Jisc Publications Router ** Licence for this article: https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ **Journal IDs: pissn 1553-734X; eissn 1553-7358 **Article IDs: publisher-id: pcompbiol-d-19-00642 **History: published_online 06-02-2020; collection 02-2020; accepted 26-11-2019; submitted 25-04-2019 **License for this article: , https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Schools:	Schools > School of Environment and Life Sciences > Ecosystems and Environment Research Centre
Journal or Publication Title:	PLOS Computational Biology
Publisher:	Public Library of Science
ISSN:	1553-734X
Related URLs:	Publication
Funders:	United States Department of Agricultre Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA APHIS), Biotechnology and Biosciences Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), BBSRC
SWORD Depositor:	Publications Router
Depositing User:	Publications Router
Date Deposited:	07 Feb 2020 12:09
Last Modified:	16 Feb 2022 03:59
URI:	https://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/56385

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