A hierarchical Bayesian-based model for hazard analysis of climate effect on failures of railway turnout components

Dindar, S, Kaewunruen, S and An, M ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1069-7492 2022, 'A hierarchical Bayesian-based model for hazard analysis of climate effect on failures of railway turnout components' , Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 218 (Part A) , p. 108130.

PDF - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives 4.0.

Download (31MB) | Preview
[img] PDF - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only

Download (3MB) | Request a copy


There has been a considerable increase in derailment investigations, in particular at railway turnouts (RTs), as the majority of derailments lead to lengthy disruptions to the appropriate rail operation and catastrophic consequences, being potentially severely hazardous to human safety and health, as well as rail equipment. This paper investigates the impact of climates with different features across the US on the derailments to light up a scientific way for understanding importance of climatic impact. To achieve this, official derailment reports over the last five years are examined in detail. By means of geographic segmentation associated with spatial analysis, different exposure levels of various regions have been identified and implemented into a Bayesian hierarchical model using samples by the M–H algorithm. As a result, the paper reaches interesting scientific findings of climate behaviour on turnout-related component failures resulting in derailments. The findings show extreme climate patterns impact considerably the component failures of rail turnouts. Therefore, it is indicated that turnout-related failure estimates on a large-scale region with extreme cold and hot zones could be investigated when the suggested methodology of this paper is considered.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > School of the Built Environment > Centre for Urban Processes, Resilient Infrastructures & Sustainable Environments
Journal or Publication Title: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0951-8320
Related URLs:
Funders: British Department for Transport (DfT), The European Commission
Depositing User: Professor Min An
Date Deposited: 25 Oct 2021 12:13
Last Modified: 16 Oct 2022 02:30
URI: https://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/62146

Actions (login required)

Edit record (repository staff only) Edit record (repository staff only)


Downloads per month over past year