‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’: identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf

Baker, R and McHale, IG ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7686-3879 2022, '‘Form is temporary, class is permanent’: identifying a longer-term hot hand in golf' , Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 18 (4) , pp. 241-251.

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Abstract

The existence (or not) of the hot hand in sport continues to attract the attention of economists and psychologists. The paper presents analysis to test the belief prevalent in golfing circles that golfers go in and out of form quickly, while ‘class’ remains relatively constant. By going in and out of form, the golfer is effectively experiencing a longer-run hot hand: one can speculate that periods of confidence breed good performance. To test for the existence of ‘form’, we present a new application of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model and use it to identify both a golfer’s class and form when modelling golf scores. The findings suggest that short-term form does exist in golf and that this hot hand lasts for about four weeks.

Item Type: Article
Schools: Schools > School of Health and Society
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Publisher: Walter De Gruyter
ISSN: 1559-0410
SWORD Depositor: Publications Router
Depositing User: Publications Router
Date Deposited: 13 Jan 2023 14:12
Last Modified: 13 Jan 2023 14:12
URI: https://usir.salford.ac.uk/id/eprint/66161

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